Alright mate, Gameweek 3 was a proper rollercoaster after that snoozefest international break – tight grinds, shock results, and a few thrillers that had us buzzing like a dodgy floodlight. Our predictions were decent, but a couple went astray, like my old set-pieces when the wind got hold of ‘em.

We nailed some crackers, like Chelsea’s win and the over in United-Spurs, but fluffed the draw in Liverpool-Arsenal and watched the acca sink thanks to City’s stumble. The Champions League kicked off midweek (September 17-19, 2025), and it’s already throwing spanners in the Premier League works: Liverpool’s gritty 1-0 win over Real Madrid at Anfield left van Dijk and Salah with heavy minutes, Arsenal’s 1-0 loss to PSG in Paris exposed fatigue from that 1,200-mile round-trip slog, City’s 3-0 thrashing of Napoli was ruthless but energy-sapping for Haaland, and Tottenham’s 1-0 edge over Villarreal came with Son’s knock.

Studies show European midweek games crank up injury risk by 20% and shave off 0.2 domestic points per match for traveling teams (per Opta and PMC data), with rotation jumping 30% – expect cagey affairs and upsets in Gameweek 4 (September 20-22, 2025). Let’s recap Gameweek 3 and tally our hits and misses, and preview GW4 with bets tuned for the Champions League fallout. Odds from Bet365 and Sky Bet, checked via OddsPortal for value. Bet responsibly, 18+ – don’t punt what you can’t afford to lose, or you’ll be sleeping in the stands.

Gameweek 3 Recap: Hits, Misses, and a Bit of Banter

Gameweek 3 was tense, with Liverpool’s title statement and Brighton’s shock stealing the show. My calls were mostly on the money, but I overestimated the goals in a few spots. Here’s the rundown with verified scores:

• Liverpool vs. Arsenal (Predicted: Draw 2-2, Actual: Liverpool 1-0): Close on the intensity, but what a low-scorer we missed! Dominik Szoboszlai’s stunning free-kick in the 83rd minute sealed it for the Reds, with Arsenal looking blunter than my old boots without a cutting edge. Our BTTS bet at 4/6 was a howler (£5 down), and Wirtz to assist at 7/4 was a near-miss – he pulled strings but no final magic. Liverpool’s shaky defence (five conceded before this) held firm for once, while Arsenal’s focus wavered post-Isak snub.
• Manchester United vs. Tottenham (Predicted: United win 2-1, Actual: Draw 2-2): Oof, we backed United’s home roar, but Spurs’ press forced a share of the spoils in an end-to-end belter. Goals flew in on both sides (details a bit fuzzy from reports, but pure chaos). Over 2.5 goals at 8/11 was a cracker (£5 returned £8.64), and the live Sesko to score at 7/4 cashed in (£3 returned £8.25). Fernandes was still at the heart of the tension with Amorim, but Old Trafford’s energy kept it level – three out of four ain’t bad, eh?
• Aston Villa vs. Chelsea (Predicted: Chelsea win 2-1, Actual: Chelsea 3-1): Spot on the winner, and nearly the scoreline! João Pedro’s brace and Cole Palmer’s strike ran riot at Villa Park, with Watkins nicking a late one. Pedro to score or assist at 6/5 was golden (£5 returned £11), and the live over 2.5 goals at 1/1 if leading at 70 minutes returned £4 from £2. Chelsea’s depth proved too much for Villa’s wobbly defence – we nailed it, even with Palmer’s heavy England minutes not fazing him.
• Leicester vs. West Ham (Predicted: Draw 1-1, Actual: West Ham 2-0): Off the mark here – we called a cagey stalemate, but Moyes’ men (wait, Potter’s? Reports say Lopetegui’s in charge now, but the lads controlled it anyway) with Wilson and Bowen tearing Leicester apart. Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 flopped (£5 down), but over 9.5 corners at 17/20 was a banger (£5 returned £9.25). Leicester’s defensive frailties cost them again, and Wilson looked motivated post-bust-up.
• Brighton vs. Manchester City (Predicted: City win 2-1, Actual: Brighton 2-1): Proper howler! City led early, but Brighton struck back with Gruda’s 89th-minute winner after Welbeck’s equaliser – a stunning turnaround that had us sweating like a centre-back in a one-on-one. Haaland to score 2+ at 5/2 flopped (£5 down), but our cheeky Welbeck to score at 3/1 was a peach (£3 returned £12). City’s 115 charges drama didn’t help, but Brighton’s scrappiness snuck under our radar.
• Acca (Chelsea, United, City to win, plus Liverpool-Arsenal draw): Two out of four – Chelsea and Liverpool delivered (sort of, on the wins), but United’s draw and City’s upset tanked our 7/1 acca (£5 down). Palace’s surprise win (3-0 over Villa, per reports) would’ve been a sneaky add-on if we’d clocked it.
• Relegation Watch: Southampton’s misery continued with a grim 0-3 loss to Everton, cementing their 1/100 drop odds. Burnley stayed toothless after their defeat to United, keeping them at 7/4 to go down (Bet365). Leicester’s home form worsened with that shutout, while Palace’s win has Glasner’s side at 20/1 – they’re quietly cooking under the radar.
• Missed Calls: Didn’t see Brighton’s upset over City coming, or West Ham’s clean-sheet cruise. Sunderland’s 2-1 over Brentford was gritty, and we overlooked Palace’s form sneaking up again.
• Betting Takeaway: The over in United-Spurs, Pedro prop, Welbeck cheeky punt, and corners in Leicester-West Ham were absolute bangers, but BTTS in Liverpool-Arsenal and the acca were proper clangers. Live betting saved us in the thrillers – let’s carry that into GW4 with the CL fatigue in mind. Total return: Up about £15 after the dust settled.

Gameweek 4 Preview: Matches, Predictions, and Betting TipsChampions League hangovers loom large, with Liverpool drained from their Real scrap, Arsenal pressured after PSG, City heavy-legged post-Napoli, and Spurs injury-hit from Villarreal. Fatigue historically bumps up draws by 12% and unders (per Opta ), so we’re eyeing value there. Here’s what’s cooking for the key games, with predictions tweaked for the Euro toll:Tottenham vs. Arsenal (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, September 20, 12:30 PM BST)What’s Cooking: North London derby fireworks! Spurs are limping in after Villarreal, with Son a doubt from that knock (per social posts), and their CL fatigue could leave gaps for Arsenal’s attack. The Gunners are hurting from the PSG defeat but have depth – Gyökeres shone, and the Isak snub still motivates. Arsenal’s elite defence faces Kudus and Richarlison; derbies average 3.2 goals, but Arsenal’s travel slog (1,200 miles) might make it cagey early on.Prediction: Arsenal win 2-1. Their depth edges it despite the hangover.
Betting Tip: £5 on over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (Bet365) – derbies deliver chaos (£9 return).
Live Bet: If it’s 1-1 at 60 minutes, £3 on Gyökeres to score at 2/1 could return £9.
Player Prop: £3 on Bukayo Saka to score or assist at 6/5 (Sky Bet) – he’s derby dynamite (£6.60 return).Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest (Anfield, September 20, 3:00 PM BST)What’s Cooking: Liverpool looked strong against Real, but van Dijk’s heavy minutes and Salah’s workload could force Slot to rotate – CL fatigue hits defenders hardest (per studies ). Forest were brittle away in GW3 (0-3 to West Ham), but Anfield’s a fortress (unbeaten in 16 home games). Ngumoha’s rising star could get a run if the big guns rest.Prediction: Liverpool win 3-0. Their quality overwhelms, even with tired legs.
Betting Tip: £5 on Liverpool to win to nil at 11/10 (Sky Bet) – Forest often blank (£10.50 return).
Live Bet: If leading 1-0 at half-time, £3 on Salah to score at 6/5 could return £6.60.
Player Prop: £3 on Florian Wirtz to assist at 7/4 (Bet365) – he’s the maestro, threading passes like I used to (badly) (£8.25 return).Bournemouth vs. Chelsea (Vitality Stadium, September 21, 2:00 PM BST)What’s Cooking: Chelsea are purring after their Villa rout, but their upcoming Bayern Munich CL clash (Wednesday) might force Maresca to rotate Pedro and Palmer. Bournemouth’s tricky at home (1-0 over Tottenham in GW3), and Chelsea’s travel could expose them – Euro games crank up injury risk by 20% (per PMC studies ).